Iraq’s electricity grid is a house of cards, war, corruption, and neglect have left it unprepared for a booming population and scorching summers, where demand spikes to 54 gigawatts against a creaky supply of 25.

Thankfully, yesterday, 20^th May the Prime Minister took a small but symbolic step toward change, inaugurating a 2-megawatt solar plant at Baghdad’s Government Palace. It’s the first in a plan to shift 6,000 government buildings to renewable energy, easing the strain on a grid that’s buckling under its own weight.

The Government Palace’s solar plant is modest, 2 megawatts won’t power a city block. But it’s a signal of intent. Sudani’s government has approved 48.5 megawatts for five key ministries (Interior, Finance, Oil, Transport, and Planning) and 47 megawatts for 148 sites, including universities, schools, health centres, and border ports.

These projects, totalling 97.5 megawatts, aim to free up grid capacity by meeting the 30% of electricity consumed by government facilities. It’s a practical move, every megawatt saved can extend supply hours for homes and factories.

This isn’t Iraq’s only solar bet. In Basra, a 1,000-megawatt plant led by TotalEnergies and Qatar Energy is under construction, with the first 250 megawatts due in 2025. By 2027, it could power 350,000 homes. Saudi’s Acwa Power is finalising a 1,000-megawatt plant in Najaf, while PowerChina targets 750 megawatts in Muthanna. Iraq’s cabinet has greenlit 12,000 megawatts of solar by 2030. These projects, if delivered, could dent (slightly) Iraq’s reliance on fossil fuels, which generate 98% of its electricity.

The logic is sound. Iraq’s solar potential is vast, with high irradiance levels and cheap installation costs compared to oil- or gas-fired plants. Rooftop solar initiatives, backed by Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) interest-free loans, are gaining traction, though only 250 million of 1 trillion Iraqi dinars allocated have been disbursed. The government’s push to plant 5 million trees and modernise irrigation also ties into a climate strategy, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 15% by 2030.

Iraq’s power crisis is brutal. Current supply hovers at 25 gigawatts, but summer demand is projected to hit 54 gigawatts, leaving a yawning gap. Blackouts are routine, sparking protests.

The grid’s fragility stems from war-damaged infrastructure, underinvestment, and corruption—$81 billion spent since 2003 hasn’t fixed the outages. Gas flaring, the world’s second-worst after Russia, wastes 1.4 billion cubic feet daily while Iraq imported 40–50 million cubic meters of gas from Iran at $4 billion a year.

Jordan’s planned electrical netwoek link, set for August 2025, will help, but it’s a drop in the bucket. A GCC interconnection, promising 1,800 megawatts by year-end, faces delays. Without grid upgrades, new solar megawatts risk being stranded, as the system struggles with voltage and frequency issues.

Corruption doesn’t help. The Ministry of Electricity, a bloated monopoly, subsidises power heavily, bleeding funds that could modernise infrastructure. Political interference stalls projects, and private investment shies away from an unstable regulatory environment.

Could solar megawatts shift Iraq’s trajectory? Perhaps, it could loosen Tehran’s grip, but only if grid upgrades keep pace. Failure risks public unrest power outages have long fuelled protests, especially in Sunni areas like Anbar, where marginalisation festers. A 2019-style uprising, driven by blackouts and joblessness, could destabilise Sudani’s government, spooking investors.

Sectarian tensions are another wildcard. Sunni communities, wary of Shia-dominated policies, may see uneven power distribution, say, if Baghdad prioritises Shia-majority areas—as further exclusion. Past clashes, like those in 2014, show how resource disputes can ignite violence. If militia factions, sidelined by Sudani’s reforms, exploit outages to rally support, security costs for oil firms and contractors could spike.

With more power cuts likely, those working in Iraq should ensure supply chain stability. Security firms must monitor militia activity near power infrastructure, especially in Basra and Najaf, and plan for rural unrest tied to outages.

High-risk investors should delay major renewable bets until 2026, when Basra’s 1,000-megawatt plant proves viable, and hedge against grid failure by diversifying into smaller, off-grid solar ventures.

Iraq’s solar push is a rare bright spot, but it’s no panacea. The 97.5 megawatts for government buildings and Basra’s 250-megawatt phase are baby steps forward, yet they’re dwarfed by a 29-gigawatt deficit.

For those in oil, security, aid, or finance, the challenge is clear, Iraq’s grid needs more than megawatts, it needs reform, resilience, and political will.