Tue, 10 Dec 2024

Iraq post Assad

As Syria transcends into something new, the position of the Iraqi government is also forced to evolve in response to a post-Assad world

Iraq, long a supporter of Bashar al-Assad faces the challenge of adapting to a Syria where policies have changed.

Stability is the key concern for Iraq, particularly along its borders, and its focus is likely to shift toward endorsing a political solution that ensures security and governance in Syria.

In the Kurdish regions of Syria, the YPG (People’s Protection Units), act as integral parts of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), maintaining strong ideological ties to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) in Turkey.

While the PKK operates from Iraq’s Qandil Mountains and advocates for Kurdish autonomy, the YPG focuses its efforts on Syrian Kurdish areas.

This alignment, continues to be an issue for Turkey, which views Kurdish groups in Syria as an extension of the PKK, a group it labels a terrorist organisation. Turkey’s military operations in northern Syria aim to suppress Kurdish ambitions for autonomy, as such Turkey stands to gain the most of anyone from the destabilisation of this region as it holds key ground in Northern Iraq and Syria.

Beyond suppressing Kurdish separatist movements, Turkey seeks to maintain a buffer zone and exert influence over Syria, the Turkish operations against PKK bases in Iraq will continue while collaborating with Iraqi Kurdish authorities in other domains.

This approach extends to shared concerns with Iran, where both nations oppose the spread of Kurdish autonomy but differ in their strategies. For Iran, preserving Assad’s regime has been a large part of its policy, ensuring a strategic ally in Syria to prop up the resistance axis to counter regional rivals, an axis which appears to have now failed in every way possible and has never looked so pointless.

Russia will also be key, Moscow has maintained military and economic ties with Iraq, particularly in counter-terrorism efforts and energy cooperation. With Assad’s position gone, Russia’s priority is preserving stability to protect its military and strategic interests, it’s not looking as though they will be able to maintain this and continue in Ukraine.

One of the biggest worries for Iraq is the resurgence of jihadist groups, including ISIS, cross-border connections between Syria and Iraq remain a concern, particularly with the potential for the movement of fighters and ideologies. Iraq has ramped up its border defenses, with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) but the border remains porous and easy to cross.

Northern Syria is home to many Kurdish-led detention centres, supported by the international community, they house significant numbers of jihadist prisoners. These facilities are focal points for global concern due to recurring attacks aimed at freeing detainees and will be watched carefully by the intelligence services of Iraq and Turkey in the coming weeks!

In summary, its early, but for Iraq, the unfolding scenario in Syria without Assad shows the need for hyper-vigilance and adaptability in safeguarding borders and maintaining stability.