In early June 2025, the Government of Iraq announced it would suspend salary disbursements for public-sector employees in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region. This development, though framed in technical terms regarding non-compliance over oil revenue transfers, has immediate and tangible security implications.

Over one million Kurdish civil servants faced economic uncertainty just days before Eid al-Adha, a pressure point that raises the prospect of social unrest, logistical disruptions, and reputational risks for domestic and international players operating in the region.

The root of the issue lies in Baghdad’s assertion that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has not delivered on its fiscal obligations under the 2023–2024 federal budget agreement. The KRG is accused of either withholding or misreporting oil revenues from its independent exports.

While Erbil contests this, the political optics rapidly turned combustible. For local populations, the debate is not just legal, it is deeply personal, cutting across livelihoods and trust in governance.

While the crisis is primarily economic and political, its knock-on effects extend well into the security domain. Organised labour protests, sit-ins, and street demonstrations are already being discussed in civil society forums, particularly among public education and health workers. Experience from past disruptions in the Kurdistan Region indicates that these gatherings, while largely non-violent, can paralyse access to key infrastructure such as administrative buildings, universities, and highways.

Moreover, the continued strain on public order services may divert police and security personnel from routine duties. This creates opportunities for opportunistic threats ranging from petty criminality to targeted attacks against foreign-linked assets to emerge. In periods of institutional distraction, many may find themselves without immediate recourse to local enforcement support.

How Al Zaeem Prepares

Rather than responding reactively to emerging incidents, this environment rewards proactive security planning. Organisations that anticipate disruptions, map their exposure, and establish contingency measures are best placed to maintain continuity and mitigate risk.

Social Monitoring tools, including early warning systems and analysis, can play a vital role. By tracking local news sources, union declarations, and social media discourse, Al Zaeem security teams can identify potential flashpoints with greater precision. When integrated with our real-time operations centre or mobile communications protocols, this intelligence becomes actionable.

We also offer operational resilience audits. These audits assess how critical functions such as finance operations, field deployments, or donor reporting could be impacted by civil disruption. Resilience planning might include secure transport arrangements, alternate work locations, or staggered shifts that reduce staff visibility in tense urban environments.

Al Zaeem consultants on Crisis Response Preparedness, in line with ISO standards this involves tabletop exercises and scenario planning sessions that simulate protest scenarios and curfew conditions offer a low-cost but high-impact method of readiness. These simulations can uncover hidden dependencies in communications systems, partner coordination, or insurance limitations.

Security is not only technical it is relational. Organisations working in Iraqi Kurdistan are embedded within a web of municipal authorities, local contractors, community liaisons, and informal influencers. Maintaining open channels is essential, particularly during politically sensitive periods.

Al Zaeem can offer value here by helping design engagement strategies. These go beyond basic contact lists and move towards dynamic engagement plans: who to notify, when to consult, how to document dialogue, and what red lines to respect. These measures build trust, reduce misperceptions, and ultimately strengthen an organisation’s social licence to operate.

The Baghdad and Erbil dispute is unlikely to be resolved swiftly. Negotiations over oil revenues have historically involved international arbitration, OPEC mediation, and, in some cases, U.S. diplomatic involvement. However, even if an interim deal is struck in the coming weeks, the underlying volatility, rooted in mistrust, legal ambiguity, and fiscal vulnerability will persist.

For organisations with a medium- to long-term presence in the Kurdistan Region, now is an ideal time to revisit security frameworks. Not because unrest is certain, but because uncertainty is already here.

Preparedness does not signal alarmism. On the contrary, it reflects professionalism, respect for staff welfare, and a commitment to operational continuity. In an environment where external shocks—from political stand-offs to economic grievances—can manifest quickly, a deliberate approach to readiness becomes not only prudent but indispensable.